The Math of Group A

Ecuador and Germany are through to the round of 16…but who will come out on top? Each team has six points after two games. And whoever wins on Tuesday in Berlin will win Group A, and likely avoid a second-round match against England. But if the match is a draw, Ecuador will win the group due to goal differential.

So, I look at it like this. Let’s say Germany–the hosts who have every conceivable advantage over Ecuador–have a 50% chance of beating Ecuador. In turn, Ecuador have only a 25% chance of beating beating Germany. Leaving the third possibility–a draw–at a probability of 25%.

Using my incredibly made-up calculations, Ecuador therefore have a 50-50 chance of winning Group A and playing (most likely) Sweden. Those are pretty good chances, I’d say.

So who would Ecuador fans prefer that La Tri play? England, Sweden, or maybe even T&T?